The debate over Video Assistant Referee (VAR) continues to divide fans, pundits and clubs across the world’s top leagues — especially the Premier League. To illustrate just how much technology affects standings, sports analysts have recalculated the 2025–26 Premier League table as if VAR decisions had never been made up to Christmas Day. The results offer a fascinating alternative view of how the season might look without VAR influence.
VAR’s Mid-Season Impact
Under normal circumstances, the Premier League table at Christmas — after 17 games — helps shape title races and relegation battles. VAR currently plays a significant role in decisions around goals, penalties and red cards, which can swing results and points. But what if all those decisions had remained with on-field officials? Analysts have removed VAR decisions from match results, then recalculated points and rankings to reveal a hypothetical “VAR-free” table.
Top of the Table Without VAR
In the VAR-free scenario, Manchester City would sit atop the Premier League at Christmas with 37 points — a one-place jump from their actual position. They are followed by Arsenal, although the Gunners drop a spot compared with the real standings. Aston Villa remains in third with 34 points, while Liverpool climbs to fourth without VAR decisions factoring into key match outcomes.
Below them, Brighton would see a significant boost, moving up four places to fifth, and Manchester United would also rise slightly. Meanwhile, clubs like Chelsea and Crystal Palace would fall down the order, illustrating how rulings in critical moments may have shaped their actual results this season.
| Position | Team | Points | Change Compared to Real Table |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 37 | +1 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 37 | -1 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 34 | — |
| 4 | Liverpool | 32 | +1 |
| 5 | Brighton | 26 | +4 |
| 6 | Man Utd | 26 | +1 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 26 | +8 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 25 | -4 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 25 | -3 |
| 10 | Fulham | 25 | +3 |
| … | … | … | … |
This illustrative table highlights how a handful of controversial VAR calls can have a ripple effect across several teams, not just the usual title contenders.
What the Differences Reveal
Impact on Title Race
Manchester City and Arsenal remain close rivals at the top, but the swap in positions — however hypothetical — underscores how pivotal decisions can change momentum in tight title races. Arsenal’s Christmas position has historically been important; past seasons with the Gunners leading at Christmas did not always lead to Premier League titles.
Mid-Table Shakeups
Clubs like Brighton and Bournemouth benefitting from VAR removal shows that more unexpected teams could climb into European qualification spots if certain in-game rulings had been different. Similarly, Liverpool’s one-place gain reinforces the idea that VAR has played a real part in their mid-season results.
Relegation Zone Stability
At the bottom, teams such as Burnley and Wolves remain in danger positions, regardless of VAR’s influence. This suggests that results for lower-placed teams may be more robust to officiating changes, as their performance over the season reflects deeper competitive issues than marginal calls alone.
Fans, Managers and the VAR Debate
The debate over VAR in English football has never been far from the headlines. Some managers and supporters argue that technology improves fairness, while others contend its inconsistency disrupts the flow and narrative of games. This hypothetical table adds another angle to the discussion, giving football followers a talking point as the Premier League heads into the crucial second half of the season.
Reimagining the 2025–26 Premier League table without VAR at Christmas Day offers a unique lens on the season so far. While VAR has undeniably influenced key decisions, the broader competitive landscape remains rich and unpredictable — whether in title races, European places or relegation battles.
As the season continues into the New Year, teams will hope to define their own fate on merit while the ongoing VAR debate adds another layer to football fans’ festive discussions.
This article is for informational purposes only and is based on analysis and hypothetical scenarios. Actual Premier League results and standings are determined by official matches and decisions recorded by governing bodies.