In a surprising move that sent ripples through diplomatic circles, Japan canceled a high-level “2+2” security meeting with the United States scheduled for July 1, 2025, in Washington. The decision, reported by the Financial Times and other major outlets, was driven by escalating demands from the Trump administration for Japan to significantly increase its defense spending. This development has raised questions about the future of one of the world’s most critical security alliances, especially at a time when tensions in the Asia-Pacific region are on the rise. In this blog post, we’ll explore the reasons behind Japan’s cancellation, the broader context of U.S.-Japan relations, the implications for global security, and what might lie ahead for this historic partnership.
The Catalyst: U.S. Demands for Higher Defense Spending
The U.S.-Japan “2+2” talks, an annual meeting involving top foreign and defense officials from both nations, are a cornerstone of their security alliance. The 2025 meeting was set to bring together U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Defense Minister Gen Nakatani. However, Tokyo abruptly pulled out after the U.S. reportedly demanded Japan increase its defense budget to 3.5% of its GDP, up from an earlier request of 3%. Some sources, including Japan’s Nikkei newspaper, even suggested the Trump administration pushed for a 5% target, a figure that would place unprecedented strain on Japan’s economy.
Japan, which has historically spent around 1% of its GDP on defense, committed in 2022 to doubling this to 2% by 2027, a significant shift driven by regional threats from China, North Korea, and Russia. The current defense budget for fiscal year 2025 is approximately 9.9 trillion yen ($70 billion), or 1.8% of GDP, according to Defense Minister Gen Nakatani. The U.S. demand for a further increase to 3.5% or more was seen as excessive by Tokyo, prompting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to assert that Japan’s defense budget is determined independently, not dictated by foreign powers.
Elbridge Colby, the U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, has been a vocal advocate for Japan to boost its military spending to counter China’s growing influence. His push for a 3.5% target reportedly sparked frustration in Tokyo, with some sources describing it as a “reckless demand” that could erode public support for the alliance.
Context: The U.S.-Japan Security Alliance Under Strain
The U.S.-Japan security alliance, formalized by the 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, has been a bedrock of stability in the Asia-Pacific for decades. Under the treaty, the U.S. is obligated to defend Japan in case of an attack, while Japan provides bases for over 50,000 U.S. troops, covering more than 85% of their operating costs—a contribution far higher than other U.S. allies like Germany or South Korea.
However, the Trump administration’s “America First” approach has introduced new tensions. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called the alliance “nonreciprocal,” arguing that Japan benefits economically and militarily while the U.S. bears disproportionate costs. In March 2025, Trump remarked, “We have to protect Japan, but under no circumstances do they have to protect us,” highlighting his view of the alliance as imbalanced.
These sentiments echo Trump’s broader push for allies to shoulder more of the defense burden. Similar demands have been made of NATO members and other Asian allies like South Korea, with Trump reportedly seeking a 5% GDP defense spending target across the board. The cancellation of the 2+2 talks comes ahead of a NATO summit where Trump is expected to press European allies for similar increases, suggesting a consistent pattern in his foreign policy.
Trade Tensions and Domestic Politics
The defense spending dispute is compounded by ongoing trade frictions. The Trump administration has imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese cars and a 24% tariff on other imports, with a temporary pause until July 9, 2025. Japan’s efforts to secure exemptions, led by Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa, have so far been unsuccessful. The New York Times reported that Japan has allocated $6.3 billion to shield its economy from these tariffs, but the lack of progress in trade talks has heightened tensions.
Additionally, Japan’s decision to cancel the 2+2 talks is influenced by domestic political considerations. The country faces a critical upper house election on July 20, 2025, which is expected to challenge Prime Minister Ishiba’s minority coalition government. Agreeing to U.S. demands for higher defense spending could provoke public backlash, especially given Japan’s pacifist post-World War II tradition and economic constraints. The Financial Times noted that the timing of the cancellation was partly motivated by these electoral concerns.
Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance
The cancellation of the 2+2 talks signals a rare public rift in a relationship that has long been characterized by close cooperation. Japan’s move reflects growing unease with the Trump administration’s transactional approach, which ties security commitments to economic and financial contributions. Experts warn that excessive U.S. demands could weaken the alliance at a time when China’s military buildup and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions pose significant threats.
For Japan, the dispute underscores the challenge of balancing domestic priorities with alliance obligations. The country has already taken significant steps to bolster its defense capabilities, including acquiring counterstrike capabilities and increasing purchases of U.S. military hardware like F-35 jets. However, further increases in spending could strain Japan’s economy and erode public support for the alliance, as noted by security expert Tsukasa Tamaki.
For the U.S., the cancellation highlights the risks of pushing allies too far. While Trump’s pressure has prompted some allies to increase defense spending—NATO members have added over $100 billion since 2016—overly aggressive demands could alienate key partners like Japan, which is critical for countering China in the Indo-Pacific.
Global Security Ramifications
The U.S.-Japan alliance is a linchpin of security in the Asia-Pacific, particularly in deterring Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. China’s defense budget, which rose 7.2% to $250 billion in 2025, dwarfs Japan’s, making the alliance’s cohesion vital. The cancellation of the 2+2 talks could embolden adversaries if perceived as a sign of weakness or disunity.
Moreover, the dispute comes at a time when Japan is diversifying its security partnerships. Tokyo has strengthened ties with Australia, India, and other Indo-Pacific nations through frameworks like the Quad, partly as a hedge against U.S. unpredictability. The Carnegie Endowment noted that while Japan remains committed to the U.S. alliance, it is also accelerating efforts to build alternative security and economic networks.
Looking Ahead: Can the Alliance Recover?
The cancellation of the 2+2 talks does not signal the end of the U.S.-Japan alliance, but it underscores the need for both sides to navigate their differences carefully. Japan may leverage purchases of U.S. defense equipment, such as F-47 jets, as a bargaining chip in future trade and security talks, as suggested by Minister Akazawa. Meanwhile, the U.S. must balance its push for burden-sharing with the need to maintain trust with its closest allies.
The upcoming G7 summit in Canada (June 15-17, 2025) could provide an opportunity for Prime Minister Ishiba and President Trump to reset the relationship. However, with Japan’s upper house elections looming and Trump’s tariff deadlines approaching, the path forward remains uncertain.
A Critical Juncture for U.S.-Japan Relations
The cancellation of the U.S.-Japan 2+2 talks marks a significant moment of tension in a historically robust alliance. Driven by U.S. demands for higher defense spending and complicated by trade disputes and Japan’s domestic politics, this development highlights the challenges of maintaining alliances in an era of transactional diplomacy. As both nations navigate this rift, the stakes are high—not just for bilateral relations but for global security in a volatile region. By fostering open dialogue and mutual respect, the U.S. and Japan can strengthen their partnership to address shared challenges in the years ahead.
External Links for Further Reading:
- Reuters: Japan scraps US meeting after Washington demands more defense spending
- Financial Times: Japan scraps US meeting after Washington demands more defense spending
- The Japan Times: Japan scraps ‘two-plus-two’ meeting with U.S. over defense spending demand
- Carnegie Endowment: Japan Is Trying to Be a Model Partner. Trump Is Pushing It Away
- The New York Times: Japan Will Spend $6.3 Billion to Shield Its Economy From Trump’s Tariffs